What is Polymarket? The prediction market, explained

Polymarket is the largest prediction market in the world. Here is what it is, how it differs from betting, and what to know before you use it.

Polymarket is a prediction market: a place where people buy and sell shares in the outcome of real events. Will a candidate win an election? Will the Federal Reserve cut rates this month? Will a team win tonight? Every question has an answer that will be known later, and every answer has a price today.

Those prices are the reason Polymarket gets quoted on the news. When a share in "Yes" trades at 62 cents, the people putting money behind their views are, together, saying there is about a 62% chance it happens. That number moves the moment new information appears, often faster than any poll or pundit.

The short answer

Polymarket is an online market where every outcome of a question is a share that pays $1 if it happens and $0 if it does not. Shares trade between 0 and 100 cents, and the price is the market's estimate of the probability. You can buy, sell at any time before the question is settled, or hold until the end and collect $1 for every winning share.

It was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan and grew into the largest prediction market by trading volume. Its markets on the 2024 United States presidential election alone traded billions of dollars, and it now lists thousands of questions at any time.

What can you trade on Polymarket?

Almost anything with a clear, checkable answer and a date by which it will be known. The main categories are:

• Politics and elections: who wins, by how much, which party controls a chamber, who a party nominates.
• Sports: game winners, spreads and totals for football, basketball, soccer, tennis, esports and more, many of them live while the game is played.
• Crypto: whether Bitcoin or Ethereum ends above a price, often in short windows of an hour or a day.
• Economy and finance: interest rate decisions, inflation prints, company earnings and stock prices.
• Geopolitics, tech and culture: ceasefires, product launches, awards shows, box office numbers and much more.

Some questions have two outcomes, Yes and No. Others, such as "Who will win the election?", have many outcomes, and each candidate is a Yes or No market of its own. Exactly one of them resolves Yes.

You can browse every open market, sorted by volume, new listings or what is trading fastest right now, on Farsight's markets page.

Why the prices read as probabilities

Because a winning share always pays exactly $1, the price you pay is also the chance you need to be right to break even. Buying Yes at 30 cents only makes sense if you think the event is more than 30% likely. If enough traders think it is 40% likely, they keep buying until the price reaches about 40 cents.

That is the core idea of a prediction market: the price is pushed toward the crowd's best estimate by people who lose money when they are wrong. It is not a perfect forecast, and markets can be thin, slow or simply mistaken. But research on prediction markets has long found that they are hard to beat consistently, which is why journalists, analysts and traders watch them.

How is it different from a sportsbook?

At a sportsbook you bet against the house, which sets the odds and builds in a margin. On Polymarket you trade against other people. There is no bookmaker taking the other side, and the odds are simply the last prices traders agreed on.

That has a few practical consequences:

• You can sell before the end. If you bought Yes at 30 cents and the price rises to 55, you can sell and keep the gain without waiting for the result.
• Winners are not limited. Sportsbooks often limit accounts that win too much. A market has no reason to, because your profit is another trader's loss, not the house's.
• Prices can be thin. In small markets there may be few buyers or sellers, so a large order can move the price against you.

How Polymarket runs behind the scenes

Trades are matched in an order book, like a stock exchange, and settled on the Polygon blockchain. Balances are held in a dollar stablecoin, so one unit is worth one US dollar, and for most actions you do not pay blockchain fees yourself.

When a question's date arrives, it is settled through UMA's Optimistic Oracle: someone proposes the answer, anyone can dispute it during a challenge window, and disputed answers go to a vote. The rules on each market page spell out exactly what counts and which source decides. We explain the whole process step by step in How Polymarket works.

Is Polymarket legal and available where I live?

It depends on your country, and it has changed over time. In 2022 Polymarket settled with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), paid a $1.4 million penalty and blocked users in the United States from its main platform. In 2025 it bought QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, to offer a regulated version of the product to US users.

Several other countries restrict or block access to prediction markets. Before you deposit, read Polymarket's terms for your location. Using a VPN to get around a block breaks those terms and can get an account closed.

Is Polymarket safe?

A few points are worth knowing:

• Your funds sit in your own wallet on the blockchain, which Polymarket creates for your account. Every trade, deposit and withdrawal is public and can be checked.
• Resolution is the main risk people overlook. A market pays out on its written rules, not on what most people assume the question means. Read them, along with any clarifications Polymarket adds later.
• Prices can move fast. News breaks, games swing and a position can lose most of its value in minutes. Only use money you can afford to lose.

Polymarket vs Kalshi

Kalshi is the other large prediction market. It has operated as a CFTC-regulated exchange in the United States from the start, works in US dollars through a bank account, and lists markets the regulator allows. Polymarket started on crypto rails with a worldwide audience and a much wider range of questions. Both work the same way at heart: shares that pay $1 when an outcome happens.

How to get started

1. Create an account on Polymarket and add funds. You can deposit with a card or from a crypto wallet or exchange.
2. Pick a market and read its rules, including the resolution source and the end date.
3. Buy the outcome you believe is underpriced, either at the current price or with a limit order at the price you want.
4. Sell any time before the end, or hold and redeem each winning share for $1 once the market resolves.

Before you place a trade, it helps to see who else is in the market. On Farsight every market page shows its largest holders, the biggest winners and losers, and on-chain links between holders. You can also look up any trader's full history, profit and loss on Farsight profiles, or see who has made the most on the Polymarket leaderboard.

Frequently asked questions

What is Polymarket in simple terms?

Polymarket is a website where you buy and sell shares in the outcome of real events. A share pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not, so its price, between 0 and 100 cents, works as the market's estimate of the probability.

Who owns Polymarket?

Polymarket was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, who runs the company. It is privately held and backed by venture investors.

Is Polymarket gambling?

It is closer to trading than to a sportsbook: you trade with other people rather than against a house, prices move with supply and demand, and you can sell before the result. Like any trading, it carries a real risk of losing money.

How does Polymarket make money?

Most markets have historically charged no trading fee. Polymarket now charges a taker fee on some market types, part of which goes back to traders who provide liquidity.

Can you lose more than you put in?

No. The most a share can lose is what you paid for it, because it can only fall to $0.